On May 11, Shanghai Steel Federation released the latest data showing that battery-grade lithium carbonate rose by 13,500 yuan/ton, the average price was 230,000 yuan/ton, industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose by 20,000 yuan/ton, and the average price was 207,500 yuan/ton. In the 9 trading days since April 27, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has risen for 9 consecutive days.
In the lithium battery industry chain, lithium carbonate is an important raw material. Since last year, the price of lithium carbonate has fluctuated greatly. In November last year, its price climbed to 600,000 yuan/ton, and entered April this year. The price continued to dive, once falling below 180,000 yuan/ton. In May, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise, returning to more than 200,000 yuan/ton.
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Regarding the large fluctuations in the price of lithium carbonate, the interviewed experts said that it still needs to be observed whether the continuous rise for many days means that the lithium battery industry chain has completely entered the price upward channel again. At present, there is still a game between the upstream and downstream of the lithium battery industry chain, and price fluctuations are generally beneficial to the development of the industry, which can allow enterprises in different links of the industry chain to obtain certain profit margins.
Whether the industry has completely recovered is controversial
Public information shows that since late April, the price of lithium carbonate has reached an inflection point and began to rise. As of May 11, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was quoted as 230,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was quoted as 207,500 yuan/ton.
There are many components of the lithium battery industry chain. In addition to cobalt, lithium, and nickel raw materials, battery materials are also divided into positive electrode materials, negative electrode materials, electrolytes, separators, batteries, etc. While the price of lithium carbonate fluctuates, the price of materials in other links of the relevant industry chain has also changed.
"The rise in the price of lithium carbonate has also led to a higher increase in cathode materials," Duan Zhiqiang, president of the research institute of Wanchuang Investment Bank, said in an interview with a reporter from "Securities Daily". "At present, the price of lithium battery materials has recovered and the upward trend is obvious."
From the perspective of anode materials, Chang Ke, an analyst at Shanghai Ganglian New Energy Division, told the "Securities Daily" reporter, "The prices of raw materials such as petroleum coke and needle coke have gradually rebounded, but the price increase is relatively small. It is expected that the anode material market will usher in an improvement in July."
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In Duan Zhiqiang's view, the recovery of the price of the lithium battery industry chain is caused by changes in the supply and demand structure. "The demand for new energy has been in the process of continuous development, and power batteries, energy storage batteries, and consumer batteries are also in a slow growth trend. In April, the sales of new energy vehicles reached a new high, reaching a historical peak year-on-year."
Does the price increase of some lithium battery materials mean that the industry is warming up? Mo Ke, chief analyst of True Lithium Research, is cautious about this. "The price of cathode materials is linked to the price of lithium carbonate, and due to changes in orders from battery factories, the price of cathode materials has risen, making the industry's judgment on demand optimistic, and this optimism has also been transmitted to other materials, including lithium carbonate. However, according to the observation of the industry, the recovery on the demand side is relatively weak, and last year's inventory digestion was not much. Therefore, it is still too early to assert that the industry is recovering, and it still needs some time to be observed." Mo Ke said.
Upstream and downstream surviving game
In the medium term, Zhao Chao, an analyst at Shanghai Ganglian New Energy Division, analyzed that, "In the second quarter, the power market demand slowly recovered, driving the rigid demand of positive-grade factories to stock up. June to August is the traditional off-season for sales. The market has doubts about the market outlook. The enthusiasm for entering the market is not high. It is expected that the bottom of lithium battery material prices will fluctuate in the short term."
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"From the end point data, the demand for power batteries has not improved significantly. At present, the demand for energy storage batteries is good, but the order improvement of cathode material factories is not obvious, the downstream inventory is not high, the upstream lithium salt factory controls the goods and controls the price. The current upstream and downstream game is more obvious." Fang Li Zhe, an analyst at Shanghai Steel Union New Energy Division, told the "Securities Daily" reporter.
In the long run, Duan Zhiqiang believes that the demand for new energy has not declined, and the price fluctuates greatly in stages, which is also an inevitable law for the industry to develop to a certain stage. The allocation of resources can be adjusted through the invisible hand of the market. "There is an imbalance in the current supply and demand structure, so the price of lithium battery materials fluctuates up and down within a certain level, which is beneficial to the development of the industry. It can make every link of the industry chain profitable. The entire industry chain is healthy and can adapt to long-term development. If the new energy industry wants to achieve high-quality development, it needs relatively stable and guaranteed supply capacity, as well as a reasonable price system."